LeeLou李儒 算計之帷

原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/02/sixth-man-candidates-by-the-numbers/

The Kia NBA Sixth Man Award is a lot more straightforward than the Most Improved Player Award, in part because the field is limited. To be eligible for the Sixth Man Award, players need to have come off the bench in more games than they started.
If you eliminate players who have started at least half the games they’ve played and also players who haven’t played at least 1,000 minutes, you’re left with fewer than 100 guys (even if you add a few guys — like Steve Blake – that can get under the 50-percent threshold by continuing to come off the bench over the last two weeks). And since there aren’t too many great players coming off the bench, it’s not too hard to determine the cream of the crop.
The Sixth Man Award often goes to the eligible guy who averages the most points per game. And while instant offense is an important part of bench play, it’s not that hard to go beyond that and look at total production, in terms of basic boxscore stats …
All stats are through April 1, 2014.

最佳第六人比起最佳進步獎容易預測多了，一部份的原因是它有條件上的限制，有資格入圍最佳第六人的球員必須要替補的場次比先發的場次還多才行，若是先排除掉那些先發超過一半場次的球員，並且考慮出賽至少1000分鐘的傢伙，只有不到100個人留在名單上。(即使把一些像Steve Blake這樣的人加進來也不會太多，他若是最後兩個禮拜持續從板凳出發，也會達到50%的門檻。)既然沒有太多出色的球員打替補，從當中選出頂尖好手並不會太難。
最佳第六人通常會頒給符合條件中平均得分最高的球員，立即提供火力也是替補上場很重要的一個環節，因此不難從基本數據上的貢獻去做判斷…
(所有的數據統計至2014/4/1為止。)

Highest total efficiency, players eligible for Sixth Man Award

Minimum 1,000 minutes played
eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
Efficiency = PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK – TO – Missed FGA – Missed FTA

That list includes a few names that you’d expect, as well as a couple that you can certainly eliminate because they play on really, really bad teams. But it’s an easy way to look beyond points per game, which, by itself, would indicate that Jamal Crawford is the runaway favorite for the award and that Dion Waiters has been the Cavs’ best reserve. Anderson Varejao has averaged 2.7 more rebounds per game than any other Sixth-Man eligible player in the league.
If we want to adjust for pace and minutes played, we can look at the PIE statistic from NBA.com/stats, which takes a player’s numbers (with weights added to each) as a percentage of the overall numbers that were accumulated while he was on the floor.

上面的表格包括了一些你預期中的名字，也有幾個你確實忽略掉的球員，因為他身處非常非常差勁的球隊。如果單純地從平均得分來判斷，Jamal Crawford遠比其他人有獲勝的機會，Dion Waiters則會是騎士最好的替補，不過考慮得分之外的數據，Anderson Varejao在平均籃板比其他有資格競逐最佳第六人的球員都還要多了2.7個以上。
如果想要把球賽節奏和上場時間的因素考慮進來，我們可以參考NBA.com/stats/的PIE統計，它是指球員的表現(加權處理後)佔他上場時所有累積數據的百分比。

Highest PIE, players eligible for Sixth Man Award

Minimum 1,000 minutes played

Four guys – Tyreke Evans, Taj Gibson, Markieff Morris and Varejao — are on both lists. Crawford ranks 16th in PIE (11.1 percent), while Manu Ginobili ranks 16th in total efficiency (838), having missed 12 of the Spurs’ 74 games.
But there’s one more thing we need to look at, because the ultimate job of a team’s bench is to build on a lead or at least sustain it. And when we look at how their teams perform with them on and off the floor, a few candidates rise to the top of the list (which I cut down to 10 guys who appear on at least one of the lists above).

共有4個傢伙 - Tyreke Evans、Taj Gibson、Markieff Morris和Varejao - 同時在這兩份名單上，Crawford在PIE的表現只有排名第16(11.1%)，Ginobili則是在效率值總和排名第16(838)，因為他在馬刺的74場比賽中缺席了12場。但是還有更多需要被考慮的因素，由於替補最終的目的是幫助球隊建立領先地位，或者至少維持住差距，所以當我們計算球隊在他們上場和休息時的績效時，某些候選人的名字跳了出來。(下面僅列出了10位至少出現在上面其中一份名單的球員。)

On-off court efficiency differential, Sixth Man Award candidates

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Rank = Rank among 235 players who have played at least 1,000 minutes for one team.

So Varejao comes out as the biggest difference maker, with the Cavs almost 11 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor than when he’s on the bench. Ginobili hasn’t played a ton of minutes, but the Spurs’ offense receives a huge boost when he’s in the game. It’s also interesting to note that Gibson’s impact has been on offense (mostly because the Bulls have been great defensively no matter who’s on the floor).

這麼一來Varejao便是當中創造最大差異的球員了，當他上場時騎士每100回合的淨得分比他在板凳上多了將近11分。Ginobili雖然上場時間不多，但是他踏入球場時馬刺的進攻能力會大幅提升。有趣的是，Gibson對球隊的貢獻也是在進攻端。(大體上是因為公牛整體的防守太好了，無論誰上場都一樣。)

On-off-court numbers obviously need some context, especially when you’re looking at a guy like Crawford, who has two teammates (both starters) who are top-10 players in the league. He’s played 1,415 minutes (71 percent of his 2,002) with Blake Griffin, but only 955 (48 percent) with Chris Paul. And though the Clippers have been better with Crawford on the bench, they’ve still outscored their opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. So his scoring numbers are far from empty and he is helping his team build on leads.
Still, if you look beyond points per game, the numbers see Ginobili and Varejao as guys worthy of first place votes, while Morris and Gibson should also be near the top of the list.

另外On/Off的數據明顯地需要就球隊整體上來觀察，特別是當你在討論像Crawford這樣的傢伙時，因為他有兩位隊友(都是先發)是聯盟中前10名的好手，他和Blake Griffin同時上場了1415分鐘(佔了他總出賽時間2002分鐘的71%)，但是和Chris Paul只有955分鐘(48%)，儘管快艇在他坐板凳時的數據比較好，但是當他上場時他們每100回合還是比對手多拿了6.8分，所以他對快艇的火力支援還是很充足的，同時也能為球隊建立更多的領先優勢。
儘管如此，如果你考慮的不只有得分，其他數據顯示Ginobili和Varejao是值得第一名選票的球員，而Morris和Gibson應該也名列前茅才對。