原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/04/rookie-of-the-year-by-the-numbers/
Kia Rookie of the Year voting should be pretty simple this season. There are only nine rookies who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game for 50 games or more. And none of those have done it for a team with a winning record.
Winning records don’t matter much in Rookie of the Year voting. None of the last 10 winners played for teams with winning records. So there probably won’t be anything stopping the media from voting for Michael Carter-Williams (of the 16-59 Sixers) or Victor Oladipo (of the 21-54 Magic).
Carter-Williams appears to be the clear favorite. He leads all rookies in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game.
That doesn’t mean that he’s the best player among all rookies. He’s just had the biggest opportunity, playing for a team that stripped its roster bare over the course of the last 10 months.
本季的年度最佳新秀應該非常容易預測，一共只有9名新人平均出賽時間超過20分鐘，出賽場次超過50場，而且沒有任何菜鳥的球隊勝率過半。不過勝率過半這件事對年度最佳新秀的票選來說並不重要，過去十年拿到這個獎項的球員，沒有人的球隊超過五成勝率，所以可能沒有任何事情可以阻止媒體把票投給Michael Carter-Williams(76人戰績16勝59負)或是Victor Oladipo(魔術戰績21勝54負)。而Carter-Williams看起來明顯比較有勝算，他在平均得分、籃板、助攻和抄截都領先其他的新秀。但這不表示他是全部當中最優秀的新鮮人，他只是獲得最多的上場機會來表現自己而已，尤其是他效力的球隊在過去10個月以來，把場上每個位置的球員都丟光光了。
Carter-Williams has been the only rookie to start every game he’s played in, and his back-up — Tony Wroten — was never a threat to take any of his minutes, especially since developing the rookie has been priority No. 1 in Philadelphia this season. Even if winning games was a priority, Wroten isn’t good enough to take minutes away from MCW.
Not only has Carter-Williams led rookies in minutes per game and usage rate, but the Sixers have played at the *fastest pace in the league. So, when it comes to racking up per-game numbers, he’s had a three-tier advantage over other rookies.
* The fourth fastest pace of the last 20 years, actually.
We can adjust for all that, though. NBA.com’s PIE statistic takes a player’s numbers (with weights added to each) as a percentage of the overall numbers that were accumulated while he was on the floor. And only one rookie ranks higher than Carter-Williams in terms of PIE…
Carter-Williams是唯一一位每次出賽都先發的菜鳥，他的替補— Tony Wroten —從來沒有辦法對他的上場時間造成威脅，特別是費城本季最重要的任務就是培養新人。就算是把贏球放在第一順位，Wroten也沒有好到能夠搶走MCW的時間。Carter-Williams不只是在出賽時間和使用率領先其他新秀，76人同時也是聯盟中節奏最快的球隊(註)，因此當我們計算每場平均數據時，他佔盡了所有優勢。然而我們可以做些調整，NBA.com的PIE統計把球員的數據(加權計算後)和他上場時的數據累積總和做百分比計算，這麼一來只有一位新人能在PIE的表現上贏過Carter-Williams。
註：實際上，本季的76人是過去20年來節奏第4快的球隊。
All stats are through April 3, 2014.
Rookies who have played 1,000 minutes, sorted by PIE
| Player | GP | MIN | eFG% | TS% | Usg% | PIE |
| Mason Plumlee | 62 | 1,079 | 63.2% | 65.3% | 16.9% | 10.5% |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 63 | 2,181 | 42.2% | 46.9% | 26.0% | 9.8% |
| Nick Calathes | 64 | 1,069 | 49.5% | 51.0% | 17.9% | 9.8% |
| Victor Oladipo | 73 | 2,325 | 45.3% | 51.2% | 24.0% | 9.6% |
| Nate Wolters | 58 | 1,310 | 46.0% | 48.6% | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Cody Zeller | 75 | 1,266 | 41.9% | 49.1% | 18.2% | 8.7% |
| Trey Burke | 63 | 1,995 | 44.2% | 47.2% | 22.1% | 8.1% |
| Kelly Olynyk | 63 | 1,215 | 48.6% | 52.8% | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Ryan Kelly | 52 | 1,103 | 51.2% | 57.3% | 15.4% | 7.8% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 70 | 1,705 | 46.9% | 52.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 66 | 1,132 | 50.8% | 53.7% | 13.3% | 7.5% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 75 | 1,732 | 52.9% | 55.8% | 19.1% | 7.4% |
| Hollis Thompson | 70 | 1,559 | 54.5% | 56.7% | 11.4% | 6.0% |
| Tony Snell | 70 | 1,178 | 47.0% | 48.9% | 15.0% | 5.8% |
| Steven Adams | 74 | 1,102 | 49.7% | 53.6% | 11.7% | 5.2% |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 73 | 1,446 | 45.9% | 48.3% | 13.6% | 5.0% |
| Ben McLemore | 75 | 1,934 | 44.4% | 47.9% | 16.7% | 3.9% |
eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
TS% = PTS / (2 * (FGA + (0.44 FTA)))
By the way, this certainly isn’t the best rookie class in recent memory, but it might have the longest names.
順道一提，本季的菜鳥確實不是近年來最好的一批，但他們可能是名字最長的一群。
So Mason Plumlee has made more of his minutes than Carter-Williams has, and has also done it for a playoff team. But MCW has played twice as many minutes. And if you’re voting for Rookie of the Year, it’s hard to argue against that.
Carter-Williams has also made the Sixers a better team. They’ve been outscored by 15.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, but by only 8.9 with him on the floor. That minus-8.9 NetRtg would still rank 29th in the league (ahead of only the Bucks), but it’s a heck of a lot better than minus-15.2.
Of the 17 rookies who have played at least 1,000 minutes, only three have a positive plus-minus. They are Steven Adams (plus-52), Matthew Dellavedova (plus-46) and Nick Calathes (plus-9). And Adams’ team has been much better with him off the floor.
Several more rookies can say they’ve made a positive impact…
Mason Plumlee在場上的效率比Carter-Williams還要好，而且還身處在一支季後賽球隊當中，但是MCW的出賽時間超過兩倍之多，當你要選擇年度最佳新秀時，你很難去質疑這點。Carter-Williams同時也讓76人變得更好，他不在場上時球隊每100回合會輸15.2分，當他上場後就只輸8.9分而已。-8.9分的NetRtg在聯盟中還是只能排在第29名(只贏過公鹿)，不過這比那爛透了的-15.2分還要好多了。在17位上場至少1000分鐘的新秀裡，只有3位球員的正負值大於零，分別是Steven Adams(+52)、Matthew Dellavedova(+46)和Nick Calathes(+9)，但是Adams的球隊在他休息時表現會更好。下面還有許多新秀對球隊有正面的貢獻…
Rookies who have played 1,000 minutes, sorted by on-off-court NetRtg differential
| On court | Off court | Difference | ||||
| Player | MIN | NetRtg | MIN | NetRtg | NetRtg | Rank |
| Nate Wolters | 1,310 | -1.8 | 2,330 | -13.0 | 11.2 | 10 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 1,132 | +3.1 | 2,561 | -7.3 | 10.4 | 16 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1,705 | -4.4 | 1,935 | -13.0 | 8.5 | 25 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 2,181 | -8.9 | 1,454 | -15.2 | 6.3 | 47 |
| Ryan Kelly | 1,103 | -1.9 | 2,502 | -7.6 | 5.7 | 53 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 1,446 | -0.8 | 2,174 | -6.3 | 5.5 | 59 |
| Kelly Olynyk | 1,215 | -2.2 | 2,395 | -7.4 | 5.3 | 61 |
| Trey Burke | 1,995 | -7.3 | 1,615 | -10.1 | 2.8 | 97 |
| Nick Calathes | 1,069 | +1.1 | 2,551 | +0.8 | 0.3 | 135 |
| Hollis Thompson | 1,559 | -12.0 | 2,076 | -11.0 | -1.0 | 150 |
| Victor Oladipo | 2,325 | -5.8 | 1,330 | -4.6 | -1.2 | 151 |
| Mason Plumlee | 1,079 | -1.4 | 2,513 | +0.6 | -2.0 | 169 |
| Cody Zeller | 1,266 | -2.8 | 2,364 | +0.9 | -3.7 | 192 |
| Ben McLemore | 1,934 | -5.0 | 1,696 | +0.0 | -5.1 | 204 |
| Steven Adams | 1,102 | +3.4 | 2,475 | +9.3 | -5.9 | 209 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 1,732 | -5.3 | 1,951 | +2.0 | -7.3 | 221 |
| Tony Snell | 1,178 | -4.5 | 2,467 | +4.3 | -8.8 | 229 |
NetRtg = Team point differential per 100 possessions
Rank = Among 236 players who have logged at least 1,000 minutes for one team
It helps to know who those guys are playing their minutes with, but among Sixer rotation regulars, only Evan Turner had a higher on-court NetRtg than Carter-Williams.
So while it’s important to add context to Carter-Williams per-game numbers, the context doesn’t hurt his Rookie of the Year candidacy very much.
若是將這些傢伙都和誰一起上場打球考慮進來，會得到比較正確的判斷，但是76人的輪替名單中只有Evan Turner上場時的NetRtg比Carter-Williams還要好。因此就算Carter-Williams的平均數據有其他因素的美化效果，仍然無法損及其年度最佳新秀的首位候選資格。
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