mip-candidates-385-140328

原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/03/28/numbers-reveal-four-strong-mip-candidates/

The Kia Most Improved Player award is thought of as the most nebulous of the six major end-of-season awards and typically gets the widest range of votes. Last season, though Paul George finished with a vote total of more than twice that of any other player, 15 different players received at least one first-place vote and another 18 received at least one vote for second or third place.
But the award also lends itself to simple statistical analysis. It should be fairly simple to determine whose numbers have improved most from season to season.
If you want to get real simple, we can just compare the raw numbers, using the efficiency statistic.

最佳進步獎一向被認為是季末六大獎項中最難以預測的,候選人的範圍也是最廣的。雖然去年Paul George以超過兩倍的得票數抱回獎項,但是總共有15名球員拿到至少一張第一名選票,另外還有18名球員拿到第二名或第三名的選票。其實這個獎項非常適合用數據來分析,直接將這兩年的成績做比較,看誰得進步最多就行了。如果你想要一個最簡單的方法,那就使用效率值(Efficiency)吧。表格中列出的是Efficiency進步最多的20名球員。

Biggest increase, total efficiency

Player Season 2012-13 2013-14 Diff.
Kevin Love 6 372 2,060 1,688
Terrence Jones 2 147 1,048 901
Miles Plumlee 2 20 894 874
Andre Drummond 2 826 1,561 735
Andrew Bogut 9 418 1,103 685
Khris Middleton 2 167 836 669
Timofey Mozgov 4 174 837 663
Gerald Green 7 319 923 604
John Wall 4 949 1,511 562
James Anderson 4 180 740 560
DeAndre Jordan 6 1,079 1,638 559
Anthony Davis 2 1,167 1,705 538
Jordan Hill 5 275 810 535
Jeremy Lamb 2 48 579 531
Dirk Nowitzki 16 1,005 1,531 526
Jared Sullinger 2 454 975 521
Tony Wroten 2 84 601 517
Trevor Ariza 10 637 1,151 514
Reggie Jackson 3 465 955 490
Richard Jefferson 13 200 678 478

Efficiency = PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK – TO – Missed FGA – Missed FTA

At this point, the big question has to be asked: Should second-year players be considered for the Most Improved Player award? If not, we can eliminate several guys on the list above, though both Terrence Jones and Miles Plumlee – two starters on Western Conference playoff teams — feel like strong candidates. Only two of the top 10 in last year’s voting — Nikola Vucevic (4th) and Chandler Parsons (10th) — were second-year players.
There are also a handful of veterans on the list who missed large chunks of last season with injuries, though Kevin Love and Trevor Ariza are having the best seasons of their careers.

這時問題來了:最佳進步獎應該頒給二年級生嗎? 如果答案是否定的,那麼我們就可以從上列名單刪掉許多人了,儘管Terrence Jones和Miles Plumlee這兩名二年級生分別在所屬的西區季後賽球隊中打到先發位置,似乎是強力候選人才對,不過去年只有兩名二年級生在票選中排進前十名:Nikola Vucevic(第四名)和Chandler Parsons(第十名)。另外這份名單還有些去年因傷缺賽的老鳥,像是Kevin Love以及Trevor Ariza,在今年打出生涯最佳成績。

Timofey Mozgov and Gerald Green are interesting candidates, but were both out of their team’s rotations last season, so their improved raw numbers may also be about opportunity.
But Mozgov’s name comes up when we look at PIE improvement. PIE takes a player’s numbers (with weights added to each) as a percentage of the overall numbers that were accumulated while he was on the floor. So it adjusts for pace and there’s a team-success element to it, because if your opponent doesn’t score as many points or grab as many rebounds your individual number will be higher.

Timofey Mozgov和Gerald Green則是另外兩名有趣的候選人,他們去年根本不在輪值名單內,所以今年的進步基本上是來自於上場機會的增加。若是改看PIE的進步,Mozgov的名字仍然在前20名。PIE是將球員的數據(加權處理後)和他在場上時全體數據的加總做比較所佔的比例,因此它可以排除比賽的節奏的影響,同時也包含了球隊贏球貢獻的元素在裡頭,因為若是你的對手得分不多或是籃板不強,你個人的數據將會上升。下面表格列出了PIE進步前20名。

Biggest increase, PIE

    2012-13 2013-14  
Player Season MIN PIE MIN PIE Diff.
James Johnson 5 879 5.3% 836 11.5% 6.2%
DeMarcus Cousins 4 2,289 13.2% 1,978 18.3% 5.1%
Kevin Love 6 618 14.4% 2,438 19.4% 5.0%
Markieff Morris 3 1,837 7.5% 1,864 12.3% 4.8%
Lance Stephenson 4 2,278 8.8% 2,487 13.0% 4.2%
Kris Humphries 10 1,191 9.2% 1,272 13.3% 4.1%
Bismack Biyombo 3 2,186 6.3% 957 10.1% 3.8%
Kendall Marshall 2 702 5.8% 1,270 9.6% 3.8%
Draymond Green 2 1,061 5.1% 1,481 8.9% 3.8%
Timofey Mozgov 4 366 6.9% 1,479 10.5% 3.6%
Xavier Henry 4 625 3.9% 895 7.5% 3.6%
Patty Mills 5 656 8.2% 1,306 11.7% 3.4%
Marco Belinelli 7 1,882 7.0% 1,749 10.3% 3.3%
Avery Bradley 4 1,435 4.9% 1,602 8.1% 3.3%
Andrew Bogut 9 786 9.2% 1,661 12.5% 3.3%
Isaiah Thomas 3 2,121 10.6% 2,450 13.8% 3.2%
Anthony Davis 2 1,846 13.5% 2,248 16.6% 3.0%
Marcus Morris 3 1,524 6.7% 1,601 9.7% 3.0%
Brandon Knight 3 2,366 8.2% 2,051 11.2% 3.0%
Alec Burks 3 1,137 7.4% 1,909 10.4% 3.0%

Minimum 300 minutes in 2012-13 and 800 minutes in 2013-14

Love, Mozgov and Andrew Bogut are the only players on both lists. But Bogut had better seasons in Milwaukee and Love’s increase is just 1.0 percent over his third season in the league. Mozgov has taken a decent jump, but still isn’t a real impact player in the league.
Based on the above lists and deeper dives into the numbers, there are four non-second-year candidates that stand out.

Love、Mozgov和Andrew Bogut同時都出現在這兩份名單裡,不過Bogut生涯最佳球季是公鹿時期的事,Love和他第三年的成績比起來僅僅只進步了1.0%而已,Mozgov雖然有長足的進步,但是他對球賽依舊沒有實質的影響力。針對上面兩份名單做更深入的分析,將會有以下四名非二年級生入圍。

Marco Belinelli, Spurs
Choosing between the Spurs’ two back-up guards is tough, because Patty Mills‘ play has been eye-opening. But Belinelli has had a bigger role on the league’s best team.
Belinelli’s points per game have increased from 9.6 season last season (with Chicago) only to 11.4 this year. And he averaged more than that (11.8) two seasons ago with New Orleans. But he’s having, by far, the best shooting and rebounding seasons of his career.
Among 168 players who have attempted at least 100 shots from the restricted area each of the last two seasons, Belinelli (51.9 percent last season, 70.2 percent this season) ranks second in improvement, behind only Love.
Among 139 players who have attempted at least 100 mid-range shots each of the last two seasons, Belinelli (35.9 percent, 44.0 percent) ranks sixth in improvement.
And among 126 players who have attempted at least 100 3-pointers each of the last two seasons, Belinelli (35.7 percent, 43.7 percent) ranks fifth in improvement.
No other player is in the top 25 of all three lists, and only one (Markieff Morris) is in the top 10 of more than one. It certainly helps (quite a bit, one could argue) that Belinelli has gone from a bottom-10 offensive team last season to a top-10 offensive team this year. But he also ranks 10th in improved rebounding percentage among players who have played at least 1,000 minutes each of the last two seasons.

Marco Belinelli,馬刺

By Year
 
AST%
 
REB%
 
eFG%
 
TS%
 
USG%
2013-14 13.3% 6.7% 59.0% 61.7% 19.1%
2012-13 13.2% 4.3% 46.0% 51.3% 18.9%

想在馬刺兩名替補後衛中做抉擇很不容易,因為Patty Mills的球風讓人眼睛為之一亮,不過Belinelli在這支聯盟最佳球隊中扮演比較吃重的角色。Belinelli的得分僅從上一季的9.6分(公牛時期)進步到本季的11.4分,他兩年前在紐奧良的得分(11.8分)甚至還比較高,可是他今年的投籃命中率和籃板都來到生涯新高。
在168名連續兩個球季都籃下出手超過100次的球員中,Belinelli的命中率(去年51.9%,今年70.2%)進步幅度排名第二,只輸給Love。
在139名兩個球季中距離出手超過100次的球員中,Belinelli的命中率(去年35.9%,今年44.0%)進步幅度排名第六。
在126名這兩季三分球出手超過100次的球員中,Belinelli的命中率(去年35.7%,今年43.7%)進步幅度排名第五。
沒有任何其他人可以同時在這三組名單中排進前25名,另外只有一個人(Markieff Morris)能夠在不只一組中排進前十名,這當然得力於(多少會有人質疑)Belinelli剛從一支進攻倒數前10名的球隊換到進攻前10名的球隊,不過在這兩年至少打滿1000分鐘的球員中,他的籃板率進步幅度也排到第10名。

DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
Boogie has seen a jump in both usage (USG%) and scoring efficiency (TS%). Though he’s still not a great shooter (his 49.3 effective field-goal percentage is below the league average), he has gone to the line a lot more than he ever has. He has also rebounded at a career-high rate.
Defensively, he’s not exactly Roy Hibbert or Kevin Garnett, and transition defense is a major problem. But the Kings have been almost six points per 100 possessions better defensively with Cousins on the floor. He’s a plus-62 for a team that’s 25-46.
Cousins’ teammate Isaiah Thomas seems like another good candidate and is 16th on the most-improved PIE list above. But his scoring effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage have barely budged (his 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage have gone down), and his numbers jump is mostly about an increased usage rate and a small jump in assist rate.

DeMarcus Cousins,國王

By Year
 
AST%
 
REB%
 
eFG%
 
TS%
 
USG%
2013-14 17.4% 21.0% 49.1% 55.4% 32.1%
2012-13 15.4% 19.0% 46.7% 52.4% 28.1%

Boogie(Cousins的綽號)本季在使用率(USG%)和得分效率(TS%)都有顯著的提升,儘管他的投籃依舊不佳(他的有效命中率49.3%低於聯盟平均),但他製造犯規上罰球線的次數比以往都要多,而且他的籃板也是生涯最高。
在防守的部份他沒有Roy Hibbert或Kevin Garnett的水準,攻守轉換的防守是個明顯的問題,但是當他在場上時國王的DefRtg%進步了將近6分,而且他在25勝46負的球隊中正負值還有+26。
Cousin的隊友Isaiah Thomas似乎是另外一個不錯的候選人,他在PIE進步排行榜中名列第16,然而他的真實命中率幾乎沒有改變(他的三分球和罰球命中率都下降),他進步的部份主要是使用率的大幅上升和助攻率的小幅提高。

Markieff Morris, Suns
If you could vote for the Morris twins as one entity, that would be the clear favorite. You can’t, but Markieff (No. 11 in your programs) should be on the short list.
He’s been a much more efficient player this season, even though his usage rate has jumped quite a bit. And the Suns, who are an improved defensive team, have been better on that end of the floor with Markieff in the game.
As referenced above, he’s the ninth most improved mid-range shooter in the league and also ninth most improved in the restricted area. He’s played about the same number of minutes as he did last season and he’s gone to the line more than twice as many times.
With both Morris twins, Plumlee, Gerald Green and Goran Dragic all worthy of some consideration for Most Improved, it’s obvious that Jeff Hornacek should be in the running for Coach of the Year.

Markieff Morris,太陽

By Year
 
AST%
 
REB%
 
eFG%
 
TS%
 
USG%
2013-14 11.4% 12.8% 51.1% 56.9% 23.4%
2012-13 9.5% 12.6% 44.2% 47.3% 19.8%

如果可以把Morris雙胞胎兄弟當作一個選項,那會是個不錯的選擇,但這是不可能的,儘管如此Markieff應該還是能夠入圍這份名單。
即使本季的使用率上升了不少,他的表現卻還更有效率,同時太陽本季在防守上進步不少,特別是當Markieff在場上的時候。
就像上面提到的,他在中距離和籃下的命中率進步幅度都排名第九,而且他在上場時間幾乎和去年一樣的情形下,罰球機會增加了超過兩倍。
其實太陽的Morris雙胞胎、Plumlee、Gerald Green和Goran Dragic都有資格角逐最佳進步獎,顯然他們的教練Jeff Hornacek應該有資格競爭年度最佳教練。

Lance Stephenson, Pacers
Like Cousins and Morris, Stephenson has seen a big jump in both usage rate and efficiency. But he’s also the most improved rebounder among 203 players who have logged at least 1,000 minutes each of the last two seasons, with his rebounding percentage jumping from 7.5 percent to 11.4 percent (best among guards).
Stephenson still has some improving to do. He’s a below-average shooter from outside the paint and his turnover rate has jumped as he’s been asked to handle the ball more. But overall, he’s taken a step forward this season.

Lance Stephenson,溜馬

By Year
 
AST%
 
REB%
 
eFG%
 
TS%
 
USG%
2013-14 21.6% 11.6% 53.8% 56.4% 19.6%
2012-13 15.0% 7.5% 51.2% 53.0% 15.1%

就像Cousins和Morris一樣,Stephenson在使用率和效率值上都有大幅度的提升,同時他也是203名至少打滿1000分鐘的球員中,籃板進步最多的人,他的籃板率從7.5%增加到11.4%(這個數字是後衛中最好的)。
當然Stephenson仍然有需要改善的地方,包括他在禁區外低於平均的投籃能力,以及他被賦與更多持球責任時大幅上升的失誤率,不過整體來說,他本季確實是往前邁進了一大步。

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