LeeLou李儒 算計之帷

原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/02/28/pick-and-roll-data-likes-the-suns/

On the Washington Wizards’ first possession of their big, triple-overtime win in Toronto on Thursday, John Wall and Marcin Gortat ran a side pick-and-roll. The same primary action produced two big free throws in the final minute of the second overtime and a huge three-point play in the third OT.
SportVU cameras captured every pick-and-roll run in the 63 minutes of basketball at the Air Canada Centre on Thursday. The folks at STATS LLC have been tracking pick-and-rolls via SportVU this season, opening a new door as we look to learn more about the game, and have provided some of the data to NBA.com.

華盛頓巫師在多倫多那場三度延長的勝利中，John Wall和Marcin Gortat開賽第一個play就是pick-and-roll，二度加賽的最後關頭又靠著擋切賺到兩罰，然後3OT時再故計重施來了個三分打。
SportVU的鏡頭記錄了整場比賽63分鐘裡的所有擋切進攻，透過這套系統他們也同時追蹤了本季各隊pick-and-roll的數據，為深度解析NBA的比賽打開一扇新的門，也替NBA.com提供一些不一樣的資料。

Heading into Thursday’s game, Wall and Gortat had run almost 200 more pick-and-rolls than any other combination in the league. They’ve been a pretty solid combination, with the Wizards scoring 1.06 points per possession when the pair ran a pick-and-roll. That mark is a notch better than the league average of 1.03 (on pick-and-roll possessions) and ranks 87th among 209 pairs of teammates who have run pick-and-rolls on at least 100 possessions.
But there’s a big difference between a Wall-Gortat pick-and-roll and a Wall-Nene pick-and-roll, which has produced just 0.85 points per 100 possessions. That’s one reason why Washington ranks 29th in pick-and-roll efficiency (better than only the Milwaukee Bucks).

在這場比賽之前，Wall和Gortat執行擋切的次數比聯盟中其他的組合都還要多出200次以上，他們確實是不錯的組合，當這兩個人pick-and-roll時巫師平均拿1.06分，比聯盟平均的1.03分(只計算執行擋切的回合)還要高，在配合超過100次擋切的209組搭檔中，排名第87。
當Wall和Nene執行pick-and-roll時就不一樣了，他們每回合只能拿到0.85分，這也是巫師在pick-and-roll時的效率只能排名第29的原因之一(只贏過密爾瓦基公鹿)。

Wizards’ most-used pick-and-roll combinations

Wall has been more likely to pass to Nene than Gortat, but that hasn’t been a good idea, as Nene has shot just 16-for-48 (33 percent) on those plays.
You see that Wall has shot worse when he’s come off a Nene screen, perhaps because Gortat sets a better pick and/or because Nene’s defenders are more mobile and able to defend Wall on a hedge or switch.

然而Wall其實比較喜歡傳球給Nene更甚於給Gortat，但這不是一個好的選擇，因為Nene在這些機會中總共只有48投16中(33%)的命中率。
同時你會發現當Nene幫忙單擋時Wall的投籃表現較差，可能是因為Gortat的擋人比較確實，或者是Nene的防守者通常比較有活動力，能夠有效限制Wall。

John Wall pick-and-roll partners

The Wizards will miss Nene, who’s out six weeks with an MCL sprain, but mostly on defense. The Wizards have allowed slightly less than a point per possession when he’s been the big defending a pick-and-roll. They’ve been almost seven points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
Offensively, they’ve been a point per 100 possessions better with him on the bench. And their pick-and-roll game might actually get better in these six weeks without him.

Nene因為膝蓋內側韌帶扭傷將會缺席巫師接下來6週的比賽，但對防守的影響層面比較大。當他在場上時巫師每回合的失分略小於1分，當他下場後DefRtg%大概要增加7分之多。
在進攻的部份，當他休息時球隊的進攻效率會稍微好一點，看來未來6個禮拜巫師的pick-and-roll會表現地更出色。

Most points per pick-and-roll possession, team

Scr/100 = Screens per 100 possessions

Top of the list
The Dallas Mavericks have been the most prolific pick-and-roll team in the league, but the Phoenix Suns have been the best, scoring 1.09 points per pick-and-roll possession, just a hair better than the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers.
The Suns’ success starts with Goran Dragic and Channing Frye, the aggressive ball-handler and the 6-foot-11 floor spacer. They’ve been the league’s top pick-and-roll combination among those with at least 100 pick-and-roll possessions.

接著來看看NBA中pick-and-roll的佼佼者。
達拉斯小牛是聯盟裡使用擋切戰術最多的球隊，但是鳳凰城太陽才是最佳的執行者，每次啟動pick-and-roll平均能得到1.09分，以些微的差距領先休士頓火箭和波特蘭拓荒者。
太陽的成功來自於Goran Dragic和Channing Frye，一位是積極的持球者，而另一位是能夠拉開空間的6呎11吋長人，他們在配合超過100次pick-and-roll的組合中是最頂尖的搭檔。

Most points per pick-and-roll possession, tandem

Minimum 100 pick-and-roll possessions

Dragic has run almost the same amount of pick-and-rolls with Miles Plumlee (407 screens on 390 possessions) as he has with Frye (425, 392). But the Suns have scored only 1.03 points per possession on the Dragic-Plumlee pick-and-rolls. Clearly, Dragic prefers to have a screener who pops out for a jumper, rather than one who rolls to the rim.
On those 390 Dragic-Plumlee possessions, Dragic has passed the ball 232 times, but only 59 times (25 percent) to Plumlee. On the 392 Dragic-Frye possessions, he’s passed the ball 234 times, and 113 of those passes (48 percent) have gone to Frye.

Dragic和Miles Plumlee配合的次數(390個回合中有407次掩護)幾乎和搭配Frye一樣多(392個回合中有425次掩護)。不過太陽在Dragic-Plumlee擋切時平均只得到1.03分，遠遜於Dragic-Frye拿下的1.30分。顯然地，Dragic比較喜歡掩護者拉出去跳投而非往籃框空切。
在Dragic-Plumlee執行的390個回合裡，Dragic一共傳了232次球，但只有59次(25%)是傳給Plumlee。然而Dragic-Frye的組合裡，234次的傳球有113次(48%)是送給了Frye。

Overall, the Suns have been efficient when Dragic has the ball, scoring 1.16 points per possession from his 1,238 pick-and-rolls. That’s the best mark among 46 starting point guards and other high-usage perimeter players who have been the pick-and-roll ball-handler for at least 300 possessions. And who’s next on the list might surprise you.

整體來說，當Dragic持球時太陽的進攻便很有效率，在他主導的1238次pick-and-roll中平均每回合得分為1.16分。執行擋切超過300次的球員共46位，其中包括先發控衛以及其他高持球率的外圍球員，他是當中最優秀的。而這份名單的第2名可能會讓你訝異。

Most points per pick-and-roll possession, ball-handler

Among 46 starting point guards and other perimeter players in the top 25 in usage rate.
Top partner = Player with whom he’s run the most pick-and-rolls.

DeRozan’s numbers seem a little fluky. He’s shot just 41 percent out of pick-and-rolls, has recorded an assist on just 5.8 percent those 690 possessions (the fourth lowest rate of the group), and averages less than one secondary assist (where his pass directly leads to somebody else’s assist) per game. But he has drawn fouls on 9.4 percent of his pick-and-roll possessions, a rate on par with that of LeBron James.

DeRozan的數據似乎有點運氣成份，他pick-and-roll後的命中率只有41%，在690個回合中只有5.8%傳出助攻(名單中第4低)，平均每場只有不到1的次要助攻(secondary assist: 傳球給隊友完成助攻的次數，簡單講就是助攻的助攻)。不過他的擋切進攻有9.4%的比例能要到犯規，這已經到達LeBron James的水準了。

Some more notes from this list…
It’s interesting that James has had good success with Chris Bosh, but Dwyane Wade hasn’t. Wade has actually shot better (18-for-32) than James has (14-for-31) coming off Bosh screens, but Bosh has shot better when receiving a pick-and-roll pass from James (15-for-22) than he has when getting one from Wade (9-for-25). The shooting numbers, of course, are some small sample sizes.

名單上值得一提的還有以下幾點…
非常有趣的是，James和Chris Bosh配合地很不錯，而Dwyane Wade則不然。事實上在Bosh的掩護後，Wade的投籃(32投18中)是比James(31投14中)還要好的，不過當考慮Bosh接獲傳球的命中率時，Wade(9-25)傳球的結果比James(15-22)還差。當然這些數據的樣本空間還不太夠，不能就這樣下定論。

Of the 46 pick-and-roll ball-handlers I looked at, the most likely to shoot is Tony Wroten, who has taken a shot on 31.0 percent of the screens he’s come off of. Next on the list are Nick Young (30.7 percent), Reggie Jackson (30.0 percent), Jamal Crawford (29.6 percent) and Rudy Gay (29.6) percent.
The players least likely to shoot are Kendall Marshall (12.4 percent), Patrick Beverley (12.9 percent), Mario Chalmers (14.5 percent), George Hill (15.9 percent) and Ty Lawson (16.3 percent).
James (20.1 percent) is less likely to shoot than Chris Paul (21.3 percent), Dragic (21.7 percent) or Wall (22.1 percent).

在這46位持球者中，pick-and-roll後最喜歡自己出手的是Tony Wroten，他有31%的比例會把球投掉，緊跟在後的是Nick Young (30.7%)、Reggie Jackson (30.0%)、Jamal Crawford (29.6%)和Rudy Gay (29.6%)。
最不喜歡出手投籃的是Kendall Marshall (12.4%)、Patrick Beverley (12.9%)、Mario Chalmers (14.5%)、George Hill (15.9%)和Ty Lawson (16.3%)。
而LeBron James自己出手的比例(20.1%)甚至比Chris Paul (21.3%)、Dragic (21.7%)和Wall (22.1%)這些控球後衛還少。

The guy most likely to pass to the screener is Stephen Curry. Of Curry’s 830 passes out of pick-and-rolls, 56.3 percent have gone to the screener. Next on the list are Russell Westbrook (55.3 percent), Michael Carter-Williams (52.1 percent), Deron Williams (50.7 percent) and Kyrie Irving (48.7 percent).
The guy least likely to pass to the screener is James Harden (27.2 percent). So when they come off pick-and-rolls, Curry is twice as likely to pass to the screener than Harden is. After Harden comes Carmelo Anthony (27.4 percent), James (28.0 percent), Jrue Holiday (29.0 percent) and Tyreke Evans (30.3 percent).

最願意傳球給掩護者的是Stephen Curry，在Curry總共830次pick-and-roll中，有56.3%的比例會將球傳給掩護者。後續的排名為Russell Westbrook (55.3%)、Michael Carter-Williams (52.1%)、Deron Williams (50.7%)和Kyrie Irving (48.7%)。
反之最不願意傳球給掩護者的是James Harden (27.2%)，也就是說執行擋切時，Curry傳給掩護者的次數是Harden的2倍。排在Harden之後的還有Carmelo Anthony (27.4%)、James (28.0%)、Jrue Holiday (29.0%)和Tyreke Evans (30.3%)。

Six of the 46 have shot better than 50 percent when coming off a pick-and-roll: Chalmers (54.8 percent), Dragic (53.2 percent), James (52.5 percent), Wade (51.3 percent), Kevin Durant (50.2 percent) and Tony Parker (50.2 percent).
Get this: Durant has recorded an assist on a higher percentage of his pick-and-roll possessions (13.0 percent) than James (10.3 percent) and more than twice as often as Paul George (6.0 percent).

有6名持球者在執行擋切後的投籃命中率高於50%: Chalmers (54.8%)、Dragic (53.2%)、James (52.5%)、Wade (51.3%)、Kevin Durant (50.2%)和Tony Parker (50.2%)。
值得注意的是，Durant在擋切的配合中送出助攻的機會(13.0%)高於James (10.3%)，甚至是Paul George (6.0%)的兩倍之多。

Location is key
SportVU keeps track of where every pick-and-roll takes place. As you might expect, the closer to the basket the screen is set, the more likely the offense is to score. The most efficient pick-and-roll spot on the floor is at the high post (around the foul line, inside the 3-point arc), which produces 1.05 points per possession.
But high post pick-and-rolls account for only 4 percent of all pick-and-rolls. The most common location is the top of the key, which sees 41 percent of pick-and-roll action. Next is the wing (foul-line extended), which sees 28 percent and the “sideline point” area (out by the coach’s box line) at 25 percent.

執行擋切的位置也很關鍵。
SportVU持續追蹤了每次pick-and-roll發生的位置，一如預期地越靠近籃框得分的機會就越高，最有效率的位置在高位(high post: 大概在罰球線附近，弧頂三分線內)，平均每回合有1.05分。
不過高位pick-and-roll只佔了全部擋切的4%，最常見的位置則是在弧頂，佔了41%的比例。再來是側翼(罰球線兩側)的28%，以及邊線附近(教練區前面)的25%。

Pick-and-rolls by location

PCT = Percentage of total pick-and-rolls run from that location.
PPP = Points per possession on pick-and-rolls run from that location.

We’re just scratching the surface here. And that’s the issue with SportVU. There’s so much data to digest, it has to be compartmentalized and put into the proper context. But we’re really starting to see how much it has to offer.
Next week, I’ll take a look at pick-and-roll defense. (Hint: Indiana good, Portland bad.)

目前為止我們只是粗淺地做些分析，不過這就是研究SportVU的困難之處，數據量實在是太大了，這需要仔細地分類並找尋其中的脈絡，不過我們確實開始感受到它能帶來非常多的資訊。
下次將會分析各隊防守pick-and-roll的表現。