trade-contenders-385-140219  

原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/02/19/what-the-contenders-could-use/

Oklahoma City (43-12)
OffRtg: 107.6 (6), DefRtg: 99.3 (3), NetRtg: +8.3 (2)
The Thunder are the most complete team in the league, the only one that ranks in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And their bench has been terrific, even with Russell Westbrook‘s knee surgery forcing Reggie Jackson into the starting lineup over the last seven weeks.
The only lineup numbers that look bad are those of their original starting group, which has been outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions and which will be back together when Westbrook returns on Thursday. In 280 minutes, the lineup has scored just 97.5 points per 100 possessions, a rate which would rank 29th in the league.
In general, the Thunder have been much better playing small. In fact, they’re a plus-203 in 1,954 minutes with two bigs on the floor and a plus-204 in 694 minutes with less than two. Some added depth on the wings could make them even more potent.

雷霆是聯盟中最接近完美的球隊,唯一在進攻和防守效率都排進前六名的隊伍。同時他們的替補也非常出色,即使在Russell Westbrook動了膝蓋手術以後的近七週,Reggie Jackson被抽離了第六人的位置進入先發名單。
這支球隊唯一的隱憂就是他們原本的先發五人只有負5.7分的NetRtg,而Westbrook的回歸將會重現這個陣容。這組先發人馬上場的280分鐘中,97.5分的OffRtg只能在聯盟中排到第29名。
一般來說雷霆打小球時比較有競爭力,事實上當同時有兩名長人在場上的1954分鐘裡,他們只比對手多拿了203分,但在場上少於兩名長人的694分鐘裡就淨贏了204分。增加側翼的深度將會使這支球隊更強勢。

Indiana (41-12)
OffRtg: 102.4 (18), DefRtg: 93.8 (1), NetRtg: +8.6 (1)
The Pacers are, statistically, the best defensive team since the league started counting turnovers in 1977. And that may be enough to win a championship.
But they’re a below-average offensive team and only seven of those have made The Finals in the last 30 years. The Pacers turn the ball over too much, don’t get to the rim enough, and aren’t a great 3-point shooting team.
George Hill is a key cog in that No. 1 defense and the starting lineup scores at a top-10 rate, but Indy could certainly use a more potent point guard, or at least a third guard that can create off the dribble. Their bench is better than it was last season, but it still struggles to score.
Danny Granger has a large expiring contract, but acquiring a player on a deal that goes beyond this season could compromise the Pacers’ ability to re-sign Lance Stephenson this summer.

數據顯示溜馬是自1977年紀錄失誤以來的最佳防守球隊,這可能足以讓他們贏得總冠軍。
但是他們的進攻效率低於聯盟平均,過去30年來只有7支進攻效率低於聯盟平均的球隊拿到最後的勝利。溜馬的問題在於過多的失誤、突破能力不足、以及缺乏三分投射。
George Hill是這支防守頂級強隊中的一塊拼圖,他們的先發陣容在得分上也能排進前十名,不過印地安那勢必得找到更強勢的控球後衛,或者至少使用第三個後衛去運球突破攻擊籃框。雖然他們的替補已經比上一季進步了,卻還是依舊貧攻。
儘管Danny Granger的大合約即將到期,不過在本季多補人將會影響到溜馬今年夏天留下Lance Stephenson的空間。

Miami (38-14)
OffRtg: 109.8 (1), DefRtg: 103.4 (16), NetRtg: +6.4 (5)
Is the Heat’s defensive drop-off a serious problem of just a case of them being in cruise control most of the season? Their ability to flip the switch on that end of the floor will depend on Dwyane Wade‘s health and Shane Battier‘s ability to play more minutes than he has been of late. As much as rebounding is an issue, so is defending the perimeter. And if there was a way they could add another shooter/defender on the wing, it would help.
Rebounding is an issue. The Heat have rebounded better (on both ends) with Greg Oden on the floor, but he’s played just 78 minutes all season and compromises their offense to some degree. So he’s probably not going to neutralize Roy Hibbert in a matchup with the Pacers.

到底熱火在防守上的退步是個嚴重的麻煩? 或者這只不過是因為他們在大部份的球季中都在放空? 他們想重新提升防守能力端視Dwyane Wade的健康,以及Shane Battier能否上場更久的時間。籃板是他們最大的問題,中距離的防守也是關鍵,如果能夠在側翼補強射手和大鎖將會很有幫助。
再次強調籃板是個問題,雖然當Greg Oden在場上時熱火的籃板能力會上升,但他整個球季只打了78分鐘,同時還會傷害球隊的進攻,因此別期待他能在與溜馬的對陣中抵消Roy Hibbert的破壞力。

San Antonio (39-15)
OffRtg: 107.5 (7), DefRtg: 100.4 (5), NetRtg: +7.1 (3)
The numbers look good on the surface. Only the Thunder rank higher than the Spurs in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But their defense has failed them, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions, as they’ve gone 2-8 in games against the other teams over .600 (every team on this list, except Golden State). Last season, they allowed just 101.8 in 22 games against other teams over .600.
Injuries have played a role in their defensive decline and if the Spurs are healthy, they’re still a great team. But there’s no getting around that, going back to Game 3 of the 2012 conference finals, they’ve lost nine of their last 11 games against Oklahoma City and could certainly use more athleticism up front with that matchup in mind.

表面上看起來數據很棒,只有雷霆同時在進攻和防守效率贏過馬刺,實際上他們的防守不太行。當對陣其他勝率超過6成的球隊時,他們的DefRtg掉到111.5分,並且只有2-8的戰績。上個球季他們對上勝率6成球隊的22場比賽中,DefRtg是101.8分。
傷兵問題是他們防守退化的關鍵,如果全員健康的話,馬刺仍然是支強隊。然而自2012年西區決賽第三戰以來,他們對上奧克拉荷馬的11戰輸了9場,因此尋找更有運動能力的前場球員來加強防守勢在必行。

Houston (36-17)
OffRtg: 107.7 (5), DefRtg: 102.1 (9), NetRtg: +5.6 (6)
If there’s a fifth contender, it’s the Rockets or the Clippers, two more West teams that rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor. Houston is actually the only team that ranks in the top five in both effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage.
Their defense hasn’t been very consistent though, and it’s allowed 106.1 points per 100 possessions in 22 games against the other eight West teams over .500. And that’s why they might want to hold onto Omer Asik. One of their biggest problems defensively is rebounding, especially when Dwight Howard steps off the floor. Only the Lakers (15.8) have allowed more second-chance points per game than Houston (15.1).

如果想找第五支有機會爭奪冠軍的隊伍,那不是火箭就是快艇,他們是另外兩支不論攻守都排名前十的西區球隊,實際上火箭是唯一能夠在eFG%和Opp eFG%都進入前五名的球隊。
然而他們的防守並不穩定,當對上西區其他8支勝率超過5成的球隊時,DefRtg便來到了106.1分,這可能正是他們想保有Omer Asik的原因。其中一個在防守上的最大問題便是籃板,特別是當Dwight Howard下場休息時。放眼全聯盟,只有湖人被對手第二波進攻的失分(15.8分)比火箭還多(15.1分)

Portland (36-17)
OffRtg: 108.7 (2), DefRtg: 105.7 (23), NetRtg: +3.1 (10)
Diagnosing the Blazers’ issues is pretty easy. You’re simply not a contender if you rank in the bottom 10 defensively. The worst defensive team to make The Finals in the last 30 years was the 2000-01 Lakers, who ranked 19th and who, as defending champs, knew how to flip the switch. They ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency in the postseason.
Not only are the Blazers bad defensively, but the their bench is (still) relatively weak. Lineups other than their starting group have outscored their opponents by just 0.2 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark among the teams on this list (even Golden State). So they’re going to be tested with LaMarcus Aldridge out with a groin strain. They’ve been outscored by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with Aldridge off the floor.

要點出拓荒者的缺點非常簡單,因為當你的防守只有倒數十名的話,是不可能成為冠軍競爭者的。過去30年來季賽防守最差的冠軍隊是2000-01的湖人,那年他們儘儘排在第19名,但身為衛冕隊伍,他們懂得在季後賽找回專注力,成為當年季後賽防守效率第一的強隊
在防守的弱點以外,他們的替補相對來說也不夠力,除了先發陣容的其他組合只有0.2分的NetRtg,這可是這8支冠軍口袋名單中最差的(包括金州勇士),所以LaMarcus Aldridge腹股溝拉傷休息的這段期間對他們將是很好的考驗,目前為止他們繳出了NetRtg 8.3分的成績

L.A. Clippers (37-19)
OffRtg: 108.7 (3), DefRtg: 102.2 (10), NetRtg: +6.5 (10)
The Clippers are very similar to the Rockets. They rank in top 10 defensively, but have struggled on that end of the floor against good teams. Furthermore, though Howard and DeAndre Jordan rank in the top four in rebounds per game, their teams rank in the bottom 10 in defensive rebounding percentage.
Blake Griffin and Jordan rank 2nd and 3rd in total minutes played, and the Clippers basically have no other bigs that Doc Rivers can trust for extended stretches in the postseason. Though the Clippers’ injuries have been in the backcourt, they’re more in need of depth up front.

快艇和火箭非常相似,儘管有Top 10的防守數據,對上真正的強隊時卻無法發揮。此外,雖然DeAndre Jordan和Howard一樣在籃板排行榜上高居前四,但快艇及火箭的團隊DREB%都排在後段班
Blake Griffin和Jordan是聯盟中上場時間第2和第3多的球員,基本上快艇沒有其他可信任的長人供Doc Rivers在季後賽使用,儘管快艇的傷病問題一直在後場,他們真正需要提升的是前場深度。

Golden State (31-22)
OffRtg: 104.2 (12), DefRtg: 99.5 (4), NetRtg: +4.7 (7)
The Warriors and not the Suns (31-21) are the last team on this list because they have a much better defense and a higher ceiling. They also have a much easier schedule, which could allow them to get into the 3-5 range in the West, going forward.
Golden State’s issues are pretty simple. Their starting lineup has been terrific on both ends of the floor, but their bench … not so much. Things have been a little better with Jordan Crawford in the mix; They’ve scored 104.5 points per 100 possessions with Stephen Curry off the floor since the Crawford trade, compared to the putrid 86.7 they were scoring without Curry before the deal. But one of their most important defensive players – Andrew Bogut – is banged up and their D falls apart when Andre Iguodala steps off the floor.

勇士擊敗了太陽進入這份名單,靠得是比較出色的防守和較高的天花板,同時他們下半季的賽程比較輕鬆,或許能夠擠進西區第3到第5名,甚至更好。
金州勇士的問題也相當明顯,他們的先發球員無論攻守都非常優秀,但是他們的替補就‥‥不太行了。這個問題在Jordan Crawford加入輪替後有稍微舒緩,現在Stephen Curry不在場時的OffRtg已經進步到104.5分了,相較於Crawford交易過來之前難堪的86.7分好太多了。不過他們其中一位最重要的防守球員“Andrew Bogut”又受傷了,而他們的防守在Andre Iguodala下場時將不堪一擊。

 

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