目前日期文章:201404 (9)

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原文網址:
http://stats.nba.com/featured/playoffs_2014_thunder_grizzlies.html#matchups

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies square off in the No. 2 vs. No. 7 opening round matchup in the Western Conference playoffs. The series tips off with Game 1 on Saturday, Apr. 19 in Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Both teams picked up wins on the final night of the regular season to secure their respective playoff positions and set up this matchup.

奧克拉荷馬雷霆和曼菲斯灰熊以第2種子和第7種子的身份在西區第一輪捉對廝殺,這個系列賽將會在4月19日星期六在OKC揭開序幕,兩隊在例行賽的最後一場都獲勝,並確定了目前的季後賽順位及對戰組合。

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okc-mem-main-385x215-140417

原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/17/numbers-preview-thunder-grizzlies/

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies both survived injuries that knocked out key players for big chunks of the season. Their reward is facing each other in the first round.
This is a rematch of last year’s conference semifinals, a series won by the Grizzlies in five games. Oklahoma City will have Russell Westbrook this time, but the Grizzlies aren’t the same team either. They’ve made some upgrades on the wings and still have one of the league’s best defenses.
Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the 2 and 7 seeds in the Western Conference, as well as the four regular-season games they played against each other.

奧克拉荷馬雷霆和曼菲斯灰熊本季各有一名主力球員因傷缺席了大半球季,但他們都通過了考驗來到季後賽,即將在第一輪中碰頭。這是繼去年第二輪後的再次對決,那個系列賽中灰熊用五場淘汰了雷霆。可是今年Russell Westbrook歸隊了,不過灰熊也和去年不太一樣,他們在側翼升級的同時,還是保有聯盟頂級的防守。下面是西區第2種子和第7種子的統計數據,包括他們在例行賽的四場交手。

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在上一篇"On/Off值解讀攻守貢獻(一) 西區前四強"中,利用球員各別在進攻端效率(OffRtg)以及防守端效率(DefRtg)的On/Off差異,去針對西區前四強的球隊和球員屬性做簡單的分析,當然任何數據分析都有其盲點,可能無法完全反映真實的情形,但無論如何每筆資料終究有其參考意義,因此這邊就只純粹以On/Off差異來做解讀,避免加入任何主觀意識,以下是東區前四強中,球員上場時間超過1000分鐘的部份。
(註:這邊的數據統計至4/14為止。)

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原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/11/most-valuable-player-by-the-numbers/

Is the Kia NBA Most Valuable Player award for the most outstanding player or the most important player? If it’s the latter, is it more important to turn a playoff team into a championship contender than it is to turn a Lottery team into a playoff team?
Where would the Bobcats be without Al Jefferson? The Raptors without Kyle Lowry? How about the Mavs without Dirk Nowitzki? None of those three guys are in the top 10 of our MVP Ladder as of last Friday.

NBA年度最有價值球員到底是要頒給最傑出的球員,還是最有影響力的球員? 答案如果是後者,那麼到底是將一支季後賽球隊蛻變成冠軍候選隊伍比較重要,還是把一支樂透區球隊變成季後賽球隊比較值得肯定?
如果山貓沒有Al Jefferson會怎麼樣? 暴龍少了Kyle Lowry呢? 或是小牛失去Dirk Nowitzki? 可是這三個傢伙在上星期五的MVP排行榜上都擠不進前10名。(註:這星期五的最新排行榜Jefferson排進第7名。)

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原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/09/defensive-player-of-the-year-by-the-numbers/

Defense is difficult to quantify.
In the boxscore, we have steals and blocks, which don’t really tell us much. Two of the league’s top five in total steals plus blocks – Josh Smith and Andre Drummond – are Pistons. The Pistons are awful defensively and worse when Smith and Drummond are on the floor together than they are when one or both is off the floor.
NBA.com/stats tells us how many points per 100 possessions a player’s team has allowed when he was on the floor, a category dominated by players on the league’s best defensive teams.

防守是很難量化的。攻守數據中雖然有抄截和阻攻,但是實際上它們不能反映全部,在聯盟中抄截和阻攻總和的前五名,其中有兩位是活塞的球員,Josh Smith以及Andre Drummond。不過活塞的防守糟糕透了,而且當他們同時上場時,狀況還會更差勁。NBA.com/stats提供了所有球員在場上時每100次球權的球隊失分,這個項目的前幾名理所當然地被聯盟中那些身處防守強隊的球員所佔據。

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利用球員分別在進攻端效率(OffRtg)以及防守端效率(DefRtg)的On/Off差異,可以比較出球員在場上時和他在休息時的球隊體質變化。圖中橫軸代表的是進攻差異,越往右邊代表對球隊的進攻貢獻越大,而縱軸的部份是防守差異,越往上代表在防守端有比較大的影響力,因此透過圖表可以判斷出誰是攻守兩端最具關鍵性的傢伙。另外沿著45度角畫線,位於右上角紅色區域表示出賽時的淨得分是正值,離這條斜線越遠貢獻就越大,反之在左下角藍色區域則代表淨得分是負值。同時依照圖中四個象限的區分,也可以簡單歸納出球員在球隊中的屬性:(1) 能攻擅守,(2) 守優於攻,(3) 貧攻弱守,(4) 攻優於守。不過這只限於該球員在球隊中的定位,並不表示他在聯盟中也是這樣的球員,畢竟On/Off這類數據和隊友強弱有很大的相關性。(表中只列出上場至少1000分鐘的球員。)

除了分析球員在隊中的屬性之外,每支隊伍的球員分佈情形也透露出各隊的特性,分佈比較集中的隊伍,顯示他們的攻守較為均衡,相反地越分散則代表特別倚賴某些球員或是搭配組合。若是在進攻端有顯著的強弱之分,就會有左右散開的特徵,如果隊上有防守組存在,則會有上下散開的情形。以下就針對西區的前四強做一些簡單的分析。
(註:這邊的數據統計至4/7為止。)

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原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/04/rookie-of-the-year-by-the-numbers/

Kia Rookie of the Year voting should be pretty simple this season. There are only nine rookies who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game for 50 games or more. And none of those have done it for a team with a winning record.
Winning records don’t matter much in Rookie of the Year voting. None of the last 10 winners played for teams with winning records. So there probably won’t be anything stopping the media from voting for Michael Carter-Williams (of the 16-59 Sixers) or Victor Oladipo (of the 21-54 Magic).
Carter-Williams appears to be the clear favorite. He leads all rookies in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game.
That doesn’t mean that he’s the best player among all rookies. He’s just had the biggest opportunity, playing for a team that stripped its roster bare over the course of the last 10 months.

本季的年度最佳新秀應該非常容易預測,一共只有9名新人平均出賽時間超過20分鐘,出賽場次超過50場,而且沒有任何菜鳥的球隊勝率過半。不過勝率過半這件事對年度最佳新秀的票選來說並不重要,過去十年拿到這個獎項的球員,沒有人的球隊超過五成勝率,所以可能沒有任何事情可以阻止媒體把票投給Michael Carter-Williams(76人戰績16勝59負)或是Victor Oladipo(魔術戰績21勝54負)。而Carter-Williams看起來明顯比較有勝算,他在平均得分、籃板、助攻和抄截都領先其他的新秀。但這不表示他是全部當中最優秀的新鮮人,他只是獲得最多的上場機會來表現自己而已,尤其是他效力的球隊在過去10個月以來,把場上每個位置的球員都丟光光了。

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sixthman2-385-140402

原文網址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/02/sixth-man-candidates-by-the-numbers/

The Kia NBA Sixth Man Award is a lot more straightforward than the Most Improved Player Award, in part because the field is limited. To be eligible for the Sixth Man Award, players need to have come off the bench in more games than they started.
If you eliminate players who have started at least half the games they’ve played and also players who haven’t played at least 1,000 minutes, you’re left with fewer than 100 guys (even if you add a few guys — like Steve Blake – that can get under the 50-percent threshold by continuing to come off the bench over the last two weeks). And since there aren’t too many great players coming off the bench, it’s not too hard to determine the cream of the crop.
The Sixth Man Award often goes to the eligible guy who averages the most points per game. And while instant offense is an important part of bench play, it’s not that hard to go beyond that and look at total production, in terms of basic boxscore stats …
All stats are through April 1, 2014.

最佳第六人比起最佳進步獎容易預測多了,一部份的原因是它有條件上的限制,有資格入圍最佳第六人的球員必須要替補的場次比先發的場次還多才行,若是先排除掉那些先發超過一半場次的球員,並且考慮出賽至少1000分鐘的傢伙,只有不到100個人留在名單上。(即使把一些像Steve Blake這樣的人加進來也不會太多,他若是最後兩個禮拜持續從板凳出發,也會達到50%的門檻。)既然沒有太多出色的球員打替補,從當中選出頂尖好手並不會太難。
最佳第六人通常會頒給符合條件中平均得分最高的球員,立即提供火力也是替補上場很重要的一個環節,因此不難從基本數據上的貢獻去做判斷…
(所有的數據統計至2014/4/1為止。)

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根據SportVU的資料,可以找出本季NBA30支球隊中,持球時間最長的主力控球後衛,透過他們每場比賽持球和傳球次數的比例,以及平均的助攻數,便能夠將這些控衛分成不同的類型。圖表中由上至下代表傳球比重由高至低,而由左至右代表助攻次數由低至高。火箭的情形比較特別,林書豪和Patrick Beverley持球時間幾乎一樣,因此同時放進來做比較。

越靠近圖表下方代表攻擊性越強的控球後衛,像是最極端的Russell Westbrook,基本上拿到球後有超過3成5的比例不會再傳出來了,而Stephen Curry這種身為攻擊型控衛,卻還能同時兼顧助攻的球員,真的是非常難得。

反之在圖表最上方的便是以傳球為主的控球後衛,其中Kendall Marshall、Jose Calderon、Ricky Rubio、George Hill和Beverley更是有超過8成的比例會把球傳給隊友。而這些球員又可以分成兩類,一種位於右上角,擁有出色的組織傳球但進攻能力偏低,另一種位於左上角,屬於功能性球員,防守或放冷箭是他們的主要工作,通常球帶過半場後就會把球傳出去了。

其他大部份的控球後衛都處於中間地帶,儘管有些略偏攻擊型,有些略偏組織型,不過基本上都算均衡。當中最優異的便是以10.9次助攻領先全聯盟的Chris Paul,再來便是Ty Lawson和John Wall,而林書豪在這一區的控衛中,是助攻最少的。

註:這邊的數據統計至4/1為止。

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